FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Off Session Highs

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note inched up to 4.54% on Monday, easing from an intraday high of 4.58%, as traders continued to monitor the rapidly shifting situation in the Middle East. Reports indicated that Iran’s military had halted strikes against Israel but warned it would resume hostilities if Jerusalem continued operations in Lebanon. In addition, President Trump stated that Iran and Israel were moving toward a ceasefire and that negotiations with Iran on a final agreement were making progress. Oil prices subsequently pared some of their earlier gains. Even so, concerns that a prolonged conflict involving Iran could fuel persistent inflation continued to weigh on sentiment, with the probability of a Fed rate hike as soon as October hovering around 52%. Upcoming US CPI and PPI releases this week are expected to offer further insight into evolving inflationary pressures.