The oil market is once again in turmoil, this time driven by renewed conflict in the Middle East. Following Israel’s strike on Iran, Goldman Sachs has revised its oil forecast, factoring in a higher geopolitical risk premium. Yet the bank remains cautiously optimistic, noting that oil flows from the region are unlikely to face major disruptions.
According to Goldman Sachs, Brent crude is expected to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, while WTI is projected to drop to $55. For 2026, they see Brent averaging $56 and WTI at $52 per barrel.
Despite acknowledging the potential for further escalation in the region, the bank believes short-term risks are skewed toward higher oil prices. However, their medium-term outlook reflects expectations of strong global supply growth, possible output increases from OPEC+, and ongoing uncertainty in global trade.
