As always, economists at Morgan Stanley are not quick to make bold, pessimistic statements. However, they aren't advising calm either. While revised GDP and consumer spending data have slightly eased concerns, the team of experts is certain that the worst is yet to come.
On the one hand, consumers have not yet noticed a significant slowdown, and the rate of layoffs is not rising. This suggests that a terrible recession has not yet arrived. On the other hand, a weakening labor market, slowing job growth, and stagnant incomes already signal that the economy is experiencing a "protracted pause," which could easily develop into a full-blown downturn.
Trump's tariffs are causing a particular headache. They are slowing investment, limiting capital expenditures, and squeezing company margins, especially within the global production chain. After a brief respite, China, Japan, and Europe are showing lower PMI readings. Even in the United States, the effects are delayed, but they will definitely be felt, and this is not good news.
Morgan Stanley acknowledges the market's current constructive mood but cautions that it could change quickly. The bank warns that this optimism could fade. The risks of a decline are only growing, and a slowdown is almost inevitable. While a recession is not the main scenario yet, the next few quarters may bring unpleasant surprises.
