Morgan Stanley does not foresee a wave of unemployment driven by artificial intelligence in the coming years. According to the bank’s analysts, while technology will advance rapidly, the labor market will collapse under its momentum.
The bank cites research by economist Anton Korinek of the University of Virginia, a leading expert on the economics of transformative AI. Analyst Stephen Byrd notes that several US developers are currently training AI models on computing power roughly ten times greater than before. If this pace continues, by 2026, we could see systems twice as intelligent as today’s.
Yet Morgan Stanley insists that this technological leap will not spell disaster for employment. Studies show that every economy retains roles requiring human judgment, flexibility, and creativity — qualities algorithms have yet to replicate.
The bank also underscores that automation does not just replace labor; it encourages capital growth, boosts productivity, and can ultimately raise wages. In other words, AI might not take away jobs but improve working conditions, provided the optimistic scenario plays out.
Analysts distinguish between two main paths of technological adoption: automation and augmentation. In the first case, AI performs tasks instead of humans; in the second, it helps them do those tasks better.
The more a profession relies on augmentation rather than replacement, the more resilient it is to disruption.
Morgan Stanley concludes that while AI is already reshaping the economy, there is still a long way from mass unemployment caused by machines. For now, AI threatens not human jobs, but merely the sense of competitiveness.
