Ray Dalio, the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, has expressed concern that the US federal debt could reach $55 trillion if Donald Trump continues with his current policies. His analysis suggests that the national debt could increase by $17 trillion if the current president implements major spending initiatives, such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Dalio points out that such an unprecedented rise in debt would lead to a dramatic spike in interest payments, quickly undermining the government’s ability to finance other critical expenditures. This scenario could thrust the United States into a state of debt paralysis, necessitating massive dollar issuance and inevitably resulting in currency devaluation.
He believes that the situation can only be stabilized through a political consensus between parties, which implies an essential need to boost government revenues and curb excessive spending. However, the current political climate in the US is highly polarized, making any compromise nearly impossible until after the 2026 congressional elections.
In the midst of ongoing tariff and budget debates, Trump has repeatedly claimed that new tariffs will help rapidly reduce the national debt. However, leading global economists warn of significant risks of a debt and currency crisis if rising expenditures are not offset by structural reforms and a balanced fiscal policy.
