A study by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found that Trump’s tariff policy produced the opposite of its intended effect: instead of shifting costs onto foreign exporters, the burden largely fell on American consumers. Foreign exporters absorbed only 4% of the additional costs, while 96% were paid by US buyers and importers. In effect, tariffs on foreign goods became a tax on US consumption.
The analysts estimate that about $200 billion of the total new duties in 2025 were ultimately paid by Americans. This creates conditions for higher inflation after a period of relative moderation. Exporters did not cut prices for goods sold into the US market. Instead, they either found buyers in other countries or waited for tariff levels to change, hoping for more favorable conditions.
Hundreds of US companies filed lawsuits against Trump earlier this year seeking refunds of tariffs totaling billions of dollars. The president said that if the Supreme Court rules against him and companies are granted refunds, it would be “a catastrophe for national security.” Trump’s stance signals a willingness to sacrifice citizens’ economic well‑being for geopolitical goals.
