Analysts at Rapidan Energy Group warned that the global economy risks facing a large‑scale crisis comparable in magnitude to the 2008 downturn. Such a negative scenario would materialize if the strategically important Strait of Hormuz remains completely closed to commercial shipping through August 2026. In that case, the imbalance between global oil supply and demand would deepen critically and crude inventories would continue to shrink worldwide. Advanced economies would be forced to actively draw down their strategic reserves in an attempt to offset the rapid rally in energy prices.
If this forecast comes true, the shortfall in global oil supply could reach six million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026. Experts note that the current market situation still looks less extreme than the shocks of the 1970s or the 2007–2008 financial collapse. However, as the war in Iran drags on, the risks of a new global economic collapse will inevitably grow. Analysts underscore that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in July, the crude oil price will eventually climb to $130 per barrel within the coming months.
The global energy market could enter a new phase of acute crisis as early as this coming summer, a risk previously flagged by Aberdeen’s chief economist Paul Diggle. The usual seasonal surge in demand for air conditioning and travel will add pressure to disrupted oil supplies from the Middle East. If the armed conflict in Iran becomes prolonged, the expert does not rule out a massive rise in petroleum prices to $180 per barrel by the end of the year.
