In July, Italy became the EU’s top importer of liquefied natural gas. With prices having doubled since the start of the year amid the Middle East crisis, neighbouring countries sharply cut purchases, but Italian traders continued aggressively filling storage. The main drivers of the frenzy were state subsidies and the threat of heavy fines for failing to meet storage rules. As a result, Rome has made a risky market bet: if supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf persist, this costly summer injection will turn into a strategic advantage. However, if logistics get back on track and prices collapse, Italian consumers will be left paying for gas bought at the peak.
Abnormal heat and the local energy sector’s critical dependence on gas further fuelled demand, allowing Italy to overtake France and Germany in LNG imports for the first time since 2017. Snam SpA’s CEO Agostino Scornajenchi says market tension will not ease and that lagging countries will soon have to scramble to buy fuel at any price. Italy’s underground gas storage is 75% full — below the five‑year average but the best result among major EU economies. By comparison, France’s stocks are filled 56%, and Germany’s have plunged to a critical 47%, the lowest level for this time of year since 2009.
The global gas market remains extremely volatile. Futures have skyrocketed more than 30% month‑on‑month amid the Iran conflict and fierce competition for LNG cargoes from Asian buyers. The situation is worsened by backwardation: winter contracts trade cheaper than summer ones, removing the economic incentive for European traders to stock up. Still, Goldman Sachs analysts warn of a high risk of winter shortages, with prices potentially surging to €100 per MWh in December — about 75% above current market levels.
