Economists surveyed by Bloomberg raised their forecast for US gross domestic product growth in the third quarter of 2026 to 2.5% annualized, up from a prior estimate of 2.0%. The revision was driven by resilient consumer spending and a pickup in private investment. A substantial contribution to the outlook comes from the expansion of artificial intelligence technologies. Thus, business capital expenditures on AI infrastructure could exceed $1 trillion this year and are projected to reach $1.5 trillion by 2027.
Analysts nevertheless point to persistent macroeconomic risks. The principal threat to sustained growth is the military crisis surrounding Iran, which could stoke inflationary pressures and restrain business activity. Against the risk of rising prices, experts expect the Federal Reserve to prefer keeping interest rates at their current elevated level through July 2027.
The improved forecast follows weaker second-quarter results, when US growth slowed to 1.5%. Structural labor force contraction and challenges in the manufacturing sector continue to weigh on the economic backdrop. The Trump administration has so far failed to deliver promised gains in factory employment and a durable strengthening of middle-class prosperity.
