Rice futures hovered near $11 per hundredweight, the lowest level since late January, as ample global supplies from strong harvests in major Asian exporting countries more than outweighed demand. In its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, released on February 6, the FAO projected global rice production for 2025–26 at 561.6 million tonnes, a 2% year-on-year increase and a new record high. This figure reflects an upward revision of 2.9 million tonnes since December, largely attributed to stronger-than-expected output in India.
Global rice stocks are now forecast to rise by 3.8% by the end of the 2025/26 marketing year, reaching a record 217.7 million tonnes. This exceeds the FAO’s December estimate by 900,000 tonnes, again mainly due to revised stock levels in India.
