Arabica coffee futures have retreated to just under $2.80 per pound, their lowest level since July 2025, weighed down by robust supply prospects in Brazil and a stronger US dollar. Despite ongoing irregular weather in some growing regions, Brazil’s overall supply outlook remains favorable, with a solid crop expected in the 2026/27 season. That said, availability from the current 2025/26 crop remains tight.
Recent rainfall across Brazil’s key coffee-growing areas has markedly improved production prospects, easing earlier worries that prolonged dryness could curb yields. Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) projects a record harvest of 66.2 million 60-kg bags in the upcoming season, of which 44.1 million bags are expected to be Arabica. Brokerage Eisa is even more optimistic, forecasting that the new crop could reach 75.8 million bags. If realized, these estimates would bring an unprecedented volume of coffee to the global market.
