The Japanese yen weakened to around 153.5 per dollar on Wednesday, erasing the previous session’s gains despite solid trade figures. Exports in January grew at their fastest pace in more than three years, driven by strong overseas demand for AI-related chips. This performance bolstered expectations that the Bank of Japan will stay on course toward policy normalization. However, recent Q4 GDP data, which undershot market forecasts and only narrowly avoided a technical recession, has dampened some of that optimism.
Market participants anticipate that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s policy agenda could help underpin economic growth, indirectly supporting the BoJ’s gradual normalization stance. Investors are currently pricing in the possibility of an interest rate hike by the BoJ in April. At the same time, the IMF reiterated that it does not target a specific level for the yen, emphasizing that the currency’s value is determined by market forces.
