The 10-year US Treasury yield hovered around 4.06% on Wednesday, stabilizing after having hit a more than two-month low earlier in the week, as investors looked ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting for clearer signals on the future path of interest rates.
Fed Governor Michael Barr indicated that rates should remain unchanged until there is stronger confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target. In contrast, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that additional rate cuts could be warranted if price pressures continue to ease. Softer-than-expected January CPI data, alongside a robust jobs report, has strengthened market expectations for more than two Fed rate cuts in 2026.
Investors are also focusing on upcoming data releases, including the PCE Price Index and the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, both due in the coming days.
On the geopolitical front, the US and Iran held a second round of indirect talks in Switzerland, reaching agreement on key “guiding principles” in their nuclear dispute. However, despite this modest easing of tensions, a comprehensive agreement remains unlikely in the near term.
