The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model is estimating U.S. real GDP growth at an annualized rate of 4.2% for the fourth quarter of 2025, unchanged from its previous reading. The latest update, published on 2 February 2026, indicates no revision to the model’s projection, suggesting incoming data have, so far, neither strengthened nor weakened the growth outlook.
With the estimate holding at 4.2%, the model continues to signal robust momentum in the U.S. economy through the end of 2025. While GDPNow is not an official forecast, markets often watch the series as a high-frequency gauge of underlying economic activity, particularly as new data on consumer spending, investment and trade are incorporated.
The lack of movement in the Atlanta Fed’s Q4 2025 estimate may offer a measure of short-term stability for investors and policymakers, as it implies that recent data releases have broadly confirmed, rather than challenged, the prior growth narrative. Further revisions will depend on upcoming economic indicators that feed into the model’s calculations.
