US sugar futures inched up to about 13.7 cents per pound, the highest level since February 10, as the market stabilized after hitting fresh 2020 lows last week, with part of the move driven by short-covering. The earlier price slump made sugar more attractive to individual buyers and unleashed a wave of pent-up demand. Asian exporters reported stronger purchasing flows, largely tied to post-Ramadan restocking needs. At the same time, signs that India’s crop may be smaller than previously anticipated provided additional support.
Even so, the upside for prices remains capped by robust oversupply fundamentals. Czarnikow forecasts global surpluses of 8.3 million tons in 2025/26 and 3.4 million tons in 2026/27, while Green Pool and StoneX put the surplus for the current season at 2.7–2.9 million tons. The picture of abundant supply is further underlined by Brazilian data: sugar output in Brazil’s Center-South reached 40.236 million tons by mid-January, a 0.9% increase from the previous harvest.
