South Africa’s composite leading business cycle indicator fell by 1% month-on-month in December 2025, reversing a 1.4% increase in November and marking its first decline since September. The drop reflected decreases in five of the seven available component series, which more than offset gains in the country’s US dollar–denominated export commodity price index and an acceleration in the six‑month smoothed growth rate of new passenger vehicle sales.
The largest negative contributions came from a slowdown in the six‑month smoothed growth rate of the real M1 money supply and a decline in the number of residential building plans approved.
Over the same period, the composite coincident indicator edged down by 0.2%, after rising by 0.3% in November, as both the industrial production index and the utilisation of production capacity in manufacturing weakened. The composite lagging indicator also declined, falling by 0.4% in December.
