The yield on Brazil’s 10-year government bond climbed above 13.8% as record-low unemployment and a sharp acceleration in mid-month inflation pointed to a resilient domestic economy, raising the likelihood that the central bank will need to keep monetary policy tight. Markets reacted to a January jobless rate averaging 5.4%, the lowest on record for the month, reinforcing the perception of a still‑heated labor market despite elevated benchmark interest rates. At the same time, February inflation rose 0.84%, complicating the outlook for the rate cut signaled for March 18.
Geopolitical tensions stemming from the US-Israel conflict with Iran further pushed up energy prices, stoking global inflation concerns and increasing the risk premium investors demand on Brazilian debt. In addition, recent political concessions—including the exclusion of R$30 billion in betting tax revenue and the allocation of R$61 billion to mandatory parliamentary amendments—have undermined fiscal credibility by favoring regional spending initiatives over the pursuit of primary surplus targets.
