The U.S. economy showed signs of cooling in February as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell into negative territory. The index declined to -0.11 in February 2026 from a revised 0.20 in January 2026, signaling that overall economic activity moved slightly below its historical trend.
The CFNAI, a composite of various indicators of national economic activity, is designed to gauge whether the economy is expanding faster or slower than its long-run average. A positive reading typically indicates above-trend growth, while a negative value suggests below-trend performance. The shift from positive to negative between January and February points to a modest loss of momentum in the early part of the year.
Updated on 23 March 2026, the latest reading will likely be watched closely by investors and policymakers as they assess the strength and sustainability of U.S. growth heading into the spring, particularly in the context of ongoing monetary policy decisions and broader global economic conditions.
