The Indian rupee strengthened to around 94.1 per dollar, rebounding from a record low, as markets priced in expectations that the Reserve Bank of India will keep its key repo rate unchanged at 5.25% on April 8 and maintain this stance at least through mid-2027. Persistently low inflation, running below the RBI’s 4% medium-term target, together with steady economic growth, has reinforced investor confidence and given the central bank greater leeway to manage the fallout of the US–Israel–Iran conflict on oil prices and overall price stability.
Sentiment improved further after Iran allowed India and several other “friendly nations” to continue using the strategic Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping, easing worries over potential LPG and petrol supply disruptions. By securing sea-lane access for India and key trading partners, the move helps mitigate energy supply risks and offers additional support to the rupee amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
