FX.co ★ UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Remains Close to Multi-Year High

The UK’s 10-year gilt yield remained above 4.9%, hovering near its highest level since July 2008, and was on track to end March more than 70 basis points higher. The escalating conflict involving Iran continued to drive energy prices up, prompting a sharp reassessment of expectations for Bank of England policy. Investors stayed focused on the economic risks posed by a protracted crisis in the Middle East, as reports that US forces were preparing for a potential ground operation overshadowed Washington’s claims of diplomatic progress. Markets are now pricing in at least two BoE rate increases this year, with a third seen as possible, marking a clear shift from earlier projections that had anticipated two cuts. Even so, BoE policymaker Alan Taylor sought to curb the more hawkish expectations, saying there was a “high bar” for raising rates and that he would prefer to wait for greater clarity on the economic fallout from the war before adjusting borrowing costs.