Corporate capital spending plans in Japan weakened markedly at the start of 2026, according to the latest Tankan survey, signaling a more cautious investment stance among major firms. The Bank of Japan’s Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX indicator fell to 3.3% in the first quarter of 2026, down sharply from 12.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The data, updated on 31 March 2026, indicate that large companies across sectors are scaling back their planned capital expenditures after a previously robust outlook. While the Tankan does not provide reasons within the headline figure itself, the slowdown in investment intentions may reflect rising uncertainty over the global economic environment and domestic demand prospects.
For policymakers and markets, the sharper-than-expected cooling in capex plans could temper expectations for stronger corporate-led growth in Japan in 2026, and will likely be watched closely ahead of future monetary and fiscal policy decisions.
