US sugar futures were trading near 15 US cents per pound, hovering close to their lowest level since March 18, as investors focused on short-term supply conditions. In India, the National Federation of Sugar Mill Cooperatives (NFCO) reported that sugar output rose 9% year-on-year to 27.12 million tons in October–March of the 2025/26 season. Nonetheless, production is expected to decline for a second consecutive year in 2026/27, as weaker cane yields prompt mills to shut operations earlier and tighten supply.
In Brazil, sugar production in the Center-South region edged up 0.7% to 40.25 million tons in 2025/26, supported by a larger share of sugarcane being allocated to sugar rather than ethanol. Looking ahead, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, projects global sugar production to fall by 2.3% in the 2026/27 season, led by an anticipated 8.7% contraction in Brazilian output. At the same time, sugar prices remain highly sensitive to movements in crude oil prices amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, as changes in ethanol economics can alter the balance between sugar and fuel production and, in turn, affect sugar supply.
