Rice futures climbed more than 1% to $12 per hundredweight in mid-May, the highest level since August 2025, as mounting concerns over tightening supplies supported prices. The USDA now projects US rice supplies for the 2026–27 season at 175.2 million hundredweight, about 15% below the prior year. The agency also raised its forecast for the average farm price to $13.50 per hundredweight, up from $12.10 in the 2025–26 season.
At the same time, farmers across Asia are cutting back on rice planting amid sharply higher fertilizer and fuel costs, pressures that have been intensified by the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Adding to supply risks, the onset of El Niño is expected to bring hotter, drier weather to the region in the second half of the year, with early signs of stress already evident in parts of Southeast Asia.
Even so, global rice inventories remain relatively comfortable after several years of strong harvests, and top exporter India is holding a record 42 million tons in stock.
