The United States’ interest rate projection for the longer term remained unchanged in the second quarter of 2026, holding at 3.1%. According to the latest update, released on 17 June 2026, the indicator was stable compared with the first quarter of 2026, when it also stood at 3.1%.
The unchanged reading suggests policymakers’ longer-run view of the appropriate interest rate level has not shifted over the first half of the year, despite evolving economic conditions. With the longer-term projection anchored at 3.1% in both Q1 and Q2 2026, markets are likely to interpret this as a signal of continuity in the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the economy’s neutral rate environment.
