The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.5% on Tuesday after rising in the previous session, as investors weighed ongoing US–Iran peace talks and reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate moves this year. In a key development, Washington issued Tehran a 60‑day license to sell oil on international markets, strengthening expectations for a quicker rebound in global supply.
At the same time, markets remain braced for tighter monetary policy after the Fed adopted a hawkish tone last week and raised its inflation forecasts. Both Deutsche Bank and BofA Global Research have updated their projections to factor in a rate hike in September. Investors are now turning their attention to this week’s PCE report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which is expected to offer fresh insight into underlying price pressures.
