FX.co ★ Palladium Steadies Ahead of Fed Minutes

Palladium held near $1,260 per ounce, stabilizing after recent declines as investors reassessed shifting expectations for US monetary policy ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes. Weaker-than-expected US employment data last week led markets to dial back expectations for an imminent rate hike, lending support to precious metals. Traders now assign a 56%–57% probability to a September rate increase, down from over 60% before the jobs release, and the forthcoming Fed minutes are expected to offer additional policy signals. However, upside in palladium remained limited as oil prices rose following renewed attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting concerns over potential energy supply disruptions and fresh inflationary pressures. On the supply front, Russia’s Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest palladium producer, expects output to fall by about 2% this year due to lower ore grades, while South African platinum group metal producers continue to grapple with operational disruptions.