Lumber prices slipped back below $620 per thousand board feet after touching a two-week high of $627 on July 8th, as sawmill capacity remained constrained amid shifting trade patterns. US sawmill output fell for a second straight quarter, with production capacity down 6% from a year earlier.
American logs have been flowing into China since Beijing lifted its pest-control ban, even as US lawmakers push for policies that prioritize hardwood lumber exports over raw log shipments. They argue that exporting raw logs reduces domestic feedstock, displaces workers, and has contributed to a 48.3% decline in lumber output since 2018.
Elevated borrowing and labor costs are also pressuring the housing market, curbing demand for construction-grade lumber. At the same time, Canada is urging the US to remove softwood lumber tariffs. British Columbia Premier David Eby has called on Ottawa to treat the dispute as a national priority, contending that cumulative duties have forced many mills—particularly in British Columbia—to scale back operations or close altogether.
