Wheat futures climbed toward $6.50 per bushel in mid-July, marking their highest level since May 22, as investors evaluated escalating geopolitical risks and their potential impact on global grain trade. Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted shipping in the Sea of Azov, a key corridor that handles roughly one-quarter of Russia’s grain exports, forcing Moscow to seek alternative routes and shift to other modes of transport.
Additional support came from renewed tensions in the Middle East. Concerns over rising fertilizer and fuel costs resurfaced after recent clashes between the US and Iran and growing uncertainty surrounding traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, the US government lowered its 2026/27 wheat production forecast to 41.8 million tonnes, the smallest crop since 1970, and cut its estimate for Canada’s output by 1 million tonnes, to 34 million tonnes.
