Wheat futures hovered around $6.70 per bushel in mid-July, holding near their highest level since May 12, as intensifying Ukrainian and Russian attacks in the Black Sea region fueled fears of disruptions to a key global grain export corridor. Ukrainian forces have targeted Russian vessels in the Black Sea after previously striking more than 100 Russia-linked ships in the Sea of Azov, while Moscow has increased its assaults on Ukrainian ports.
The Black Sea remains a vital hub for global grain trade: Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, and Ukraine is among the leading suppliers. Ukraine has already lost roughly one-third of its Black Sea grain export capacity amid the stepped-up Russian attacks, heightening concerns about tighter global supplies.
The latest escalation has revived memories of the severe supply shock at the outset of the war in 2022, when the shutdown of Ukrainian ports stranded millions of tonnes of grain and drove global food prices sharply higher.
