The dollar index climbed to 100.6 on Thursday, rebounding after declines in the previous two sessions, as investors digested new data underscoring the ongoing resilience of the US economy. Retail sales increased in line with expectations: lower gasoline prices dragged down receipts at gas stations, but this was offset by solid sales at motor vehicle dealers and nonstore retailers. At the same time, initial jobless claims fell to a two-month low of 208K.
Investors also kept a close eye on geopolitical developments in the Middle East, with oil prices trading near one-month highs after the US stepped up strikes against Iran. In this environment, markets are assigning roughly a 12% probability to a rate hike this month and about a 56% chance of another increase in September. The dollar was broadly stronger, particularly against the British pound and the euro.
