Wheat prices fell below $6.40 per bushel in early August, the lowest level since July 13, as a sharp decline in oil prices pressured the broader agricultural complex. Crude oil, which often sets the tone for commodities including wheat, dropped steeply amid rising optimism over a possible US–Iran agreement, after Qatar said mediation between the two countries had entered an advanced stage.
Bearish sentiment was reinforced by improving US crop conditions, which strengthened expectations of ample wheat supplies. USDA data showed the share of the spring wheat crop rated good to excellent increased to 55%, up from 53% the previous week.
At the same time, Ukraine’s agriculture minister noted that alternative export routes would remain constrained at least through the end of August, with capacity capped at roughly half of normal Black Sea shipment volumes. While these restrictions kept supply risks in focus, ongoing exports helped temper fears of a severe supply disruption.
