European natural gas prices traded above €65/MWh, their highest level since January 2023, driven by mounting concerns over global LNG supply. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted roughly one-fifth of global LNG flows, undermining Europe’s ability to build inventories over the summer. EU gas storage facilities are currently about 63% full—the lowest seasonal level since 2009 and significantly below long-term norms.
The European Commission nevertheless remains confident that ample spare LNG import capacity, combined with an 80% storage target, will be sufficient to cover winter demand. Even so, Europe is likely to face strong competition from Asian buyers for spot LNG cargoes. At the same time, tentative signs of improved transit through the Strait of Hormuz, along with discussions over a potential Iran–Oman shipping corridor, have reduced immediate fears of further physical supply interruptions. As a result, market focus is gradually shifting away from the risk of an acute supply shock toward the broader economic and sanctions-related implications of developments involving Iran.
