The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose for a fifth consecutive session on Tuesday, reaching 4.79%—its highest level since January 2025—as climbing oil prices heightened inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten monetary policy further.
Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium last Friday, Fed Chair Warsh reiterated his commitment to bringing inflation back under control. In response, markets are now pricing in roughly a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at this month’s meeting, a sharp increase from about 40% a week earlier. Nonetheless, uncertainty persists over whether the central bank will move to raise borrowing costs, particularly after it left the federal funds rate unchanged at both its June and July meetings.
At the long end of the curve, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond climbed to 5.28%, nearly returning to the levels seen before Treasury Secretary Bessent unsettled markets last month by announcing plans to at least double the size of the Treasury Department’s bond buyback program.
