The National Bank of Serbia kept its key policy rate unchanged at 5.75% at its September 2026 meeting, maintaining borrowing costs at the level in place since September 2024. The decision reflected caution regarding the effects of international developments on both current and expected inflation dynamics. Headline inflation remained below the midpoint of the 3% ± 1.5% target band, easing to 1.9% in July and proving more resilient than policymakers had anticipated. From September onward, inflation is expected to hover around 4% and to remain at approximately that level throughout 2027.
Economic activity strengthened in the second quarter of 2026, with growth accelerating beyond previous estimates to 3.8%. Overall economic growth is projected at 3.2% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027. In the labor market, the unemployment rate has fallen to 7.2%, the lowest level on record. Nonetheless, policymakers emphasized the high degree of uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and cautioned that spillover effects cannot be ruled out.
