FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Hits Highest Since 2007

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose above 5% on Tuesday, its highest level since July 2007, as the global bond selloff deepened amid surging energy prices, heightened inflation risks, and growing fiscal concerns. Oil prices extended their gains following the continued shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline, while Ukraine disputed President Trump’s assertion that it had already reached an agreement with Russia to halt attacks on energy infrastructure. At the same time, futures markets are assigning roughly a 92% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Investors will also be watching closely for any signals on additional monetary tightening as policymakers grapple with persistent upside risks to inflation. Further upward pressure on long-term yields has come from a surge in corporate debt issuance by AI-related companies, which has constrained capital allocation by primary dealers and other financial institutions.