Aluminum futures in the UK climbed toward $3,290 per ton, supported by increasingly tight supply conditions. The war between the US and Iran has disrupted aluminum flows from the region, with GCC output dropping 44% year-on-year in July. Before the conflict, the Gulf accounted for roughly 10% of global aluminum production.
On the inventory side, LME stocks remained near a 36-year low, while SHFE inventories continued to decline, underscoring the scarcity in the physical market. Still, the supply outlook may improve as several smelters restart and ramp up previously idled capacity, and others move ahead with expansion projects.
Additional relief could come from China. Exports from the world’s largest producer rose 17.2% year-on-year in August, potentially offsetting some of the shortfall from the Gulf.
Meanwhile, traders largely looked past a hawkish rate hike by the Federal Reserve, which pushed the US dollar higher. A stronger dollar typically pressures dollar-denominated commodities by making them more expensive for buyers using other currencies, yet this usual headwind appeared to have limited impact on aluminum prices.
