The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model is estimating that U.S. real GDP growth remains unchanged at an annualized 3.7% for the third quarter of 2026, according to data updated on 6 October 2026. The latest reading matches the previous third-quarter projection of 3.7%, indicating a stable outlook for near-term economic expansion.
The unchanged estimate suggests that the flow of incoming data has not materially altered expectations for U.S. economic performance in Q3. With the GDPNow figure holding steady, markets and analysts receive a consistent signal that the economy is tracking a solid, mid-single-digit growth pace as the quarter draws to a close.
While GDPNow is a real-time, model-based estimate rather than an official government statistic, its stability at 3.7% through the third quarter of 2026 may reinforce expectations of resilient underlying activity in the U.S. economy, pending official GDP releases and further data revisions.
