Iron ore futures rebounded above CNY 680 per ton, recovering from four-year lows on the back of stronger crude steel production and better-than-expected economic data from China. Official figures showed that China’s daily crude steel output rose 1.9% month over month to 2.45 million tons in September, the first monthly increase since June, supported by solid export demand and expectations of stronger seasonal demand in the domestic market. At the same time, China’s economy expanded 4.5% year over year in the third quarter, up from 4.3% in the previous quarter and above the 4.4% forecast.
Despite these positives, structural headwinds continued to pressure the iron ore market. Global supply remains abundant, mining capacity is expanding, and shipments are expected to increase further in the fourth quarter. Market sentiment was also weakened by the World Steel Association’s latest outlook, which now projects global steel demand to contract by 0.1% in 2026, a reversal from its April forecast of 0.3% growth.
