The Australian dollar held near $0.70, staying above recent multi‑month lows as investors awaited clearer guidance on the policy outlook. Attention is focused on a speech by RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser on Wednesday, which could shed light on the likelihood of a fifth rate increase this year.
Signs have emerged that the labor market may be cooling more quickly than expected, according to a recent RBA comment. Even so, the inflation report due on October 28 remains pivotal for future policy decisions. Core inflation is forecast to rise by 0.9–1.0% in the third quarter, potentially pushing the annual rate to 3.5–3.6%—above both the RBA’s 2–3% target band and its current 3.3% projection.
On the same day, Governor Michele Bullock and other RBA officials will appear before lawmakers, providing a timely opportunity to discuss the latest data and their implications. Money markets now assign roughly a one‑in‑three probability to a November rate hike, with those odds increasing to about 56% for December.
Externally, the Australian dollar also found support from a broadly weaker euro, as mounting political risks in France continued to weigh on the single currency.
