The New Zealand dollar slipped to $0.558 on Wednesday, nearing its weakest level since November 2025, after soft labor-market data dampened expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank. The unemployment rate edged up to 5.7% in the third quarter from 5.6% in the previous quarter, overshooting forecasts of 5.5% and reaching its highest level in eleven years. At the same time, employment declined 0.1% over the quarter, confounding expectations for a 0.4% increase.
The data point to persistent slack in the labor market and underscore the fragility of the economic recovery, with elevated oil prices and uncertainty ahead of the November 7 election weighing on business confidence and hiring. The deterioration in labor-market conditions has led investors to question the case for additional monetary tightening. Market pricing now puts the probability of a December rate hike at below 50%, down from about 75% just a day earlier.
