FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Holds Firm on Hawkish Fed Bets

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note hovered near 5% during Thursday’s post-holiday session, extending gains from earlier in the week amid mounting expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate increases. The move followed stronger-than-expected October inflation data and increasingly hawkish commentary from Fed officials. Governor Christopher Waller signaled that a 50-basis-point hike in December could be warranted, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued for at least two additional 25-basis-point increases as inflation pressures remain elevated. Futures markets now imply roughly a 91% probability of a rate hike next month, with additional tightening in January and possibly April also under consideration. Investors are looking ahead to Thursday’s initial jobless claims and existing home sales reports for further insight into inflation dynamics, labor market conditions, and the broader economic outlook.