FX.co ★ Top 8 'black swans' that could affect global economy in 2021

Joe Biden's possible rejection of presidency

Experts believe that in 2021 there is a high risk that Joe Biden will step down as the US president. Biden's age suggests a number of health problems which increases the risk of his re-election. The fact that he will devolve power to the first female president in US history cannot be ruled out. In such a case, the American economy will not suffer, but global stock markets will collapse in the short term.

Rising tensions in the Middle East

It is going to be a tumultuous year in the Middle East, experts warn. At the moment, religion is a major source of conflicts in the Middle East (Sunni-Shi'ite tensions). Instability in Iraq, the conflicts in Syria and Libya, as well as provocations in the Persian Gulf region could lead to local wars. Such a situation, in turn, is likely to trigger sharp swings in oil prices, a correction in global markets, and a deep economic crisis in Europe.

Difficulties with COVID-19 vaccination

In 2021, the authorities of several countries are pinning all their hopes on vaccines against the coronavirus. However, vaccination campaigns may face difficulties related to their production and the refusal of immunization. Besides, there may be problems with the transportation of vaccines, analysts warn. As a result, it may take years rather than months for the whole population to be vaccinated. The current public health problems are expected to drag stock markets down, while global GDP is likely to remain low.

US-China confrontation

This year, tensions between the United States, Western countries, and China are expected to intensify. Experts warn that the conflict could escalate amid the struggle for the high-tech market, as well as China's ambitions and the US radical position. Growing tensions could turn into a tough confrontation between the global economies. This, in turn, will have a severe impact on the economic growth of China and the United States, triggering a significant correction in global markets.

Regulators against IT giants

In 2021, experts see global regulators imposing sanctions against Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Apple. Last year, senior officials threatened to split these IT giants. If they adopt new anti-trust laws that provide separation or business restrictions, volatility may grip the markets. Moreover, it will be far higher than in the spring of 2020, experts assume.

Increased wealth inequality

This year, experts predict another surge in wealth inequality in a number of countries. In 2020, income inequality increased sharply due to economic losses combined with growth in stock markets. Therefore, the authorities of several states faced the problem of compensation for unprecedented costs in order to promote the economic recovery. Earlier, such problems used to be solved by money printing and increased taxes, but now this may not work. As a result, stock markets may experience a correction and the global economy is likely to suffer.

Steelmaking as way to combat climate change

According to new studies, cement production and steelmaking have a significant impact on climate change. This may become a key issue for the new US administration. In such a situation, the US is likely to increase pressure on China, as the latter is the world's largest consumer of cement and steel. The additional restrictions to make these processes "greener" could pose a threat to the global construction industry. Such restrictive measures could also paralyze the global real estate market and transport industry.

Post-pandemic psychology

COVID-19 became a symbol of the previous year. During this time, the authorities managed to develop a tactic to respond to the pandemic. Experts saw a powerful collective response in combating the coronavirus. They noted the formation of a new so-called "post-pandemic" psychology. Analysts cannot exclude the emergence of a new similar virus in 2021, which could cause serious panic and massive sales in the markets. However, experts hope that the world will be able to cope with all new problems.