FX.co ★ Bitcoin after futures: Three plausible outcomes

CME Group announced plans to offer a bitcoin futures contract this year. This brings it in line with Cboe Global Markets, which announced similar plans in August, and LedgerX, which began trading in bitcoin options and day-ahead swaps two weeks ago. These contracts are important steps toward integrating bitcoin with the global financial system. All three exchanges are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Experts see three possible scenarios in this situation.

The first option entails that the SEC digs in its heels and institutional money stays leery of bitcoin. In some ways this makes bitcoin more valuable, but only to a subset of people, says analysts. The cryptocurrency will likely remain illiquid and volatile.

According to the second scenario, the SEC relents and global regulators start treating bitcoin like a commodity, but there isn't interest from long-term, passive investors. As the result, Bitcoin becomes like a penny stock, subject to pumps and dumps. CME and Cboe would lose interest.

The third option, as the first one, implies that the SEC relents. There will be $50 billion flows in from long-term, passive investors over the course of 2018. Bitcoin prices might go up or down as a result, but the new prices would be real in a way the current prices are not. Stability and liquidity lead to more use, which leads to more stability and liquidity. Bitcoin becomes a standard financial commodity, and a useful part of the global financial system.