FX.co ★ The most dangerous options for the future for the next 10 years – Bloomberg

According to experts of the Bloomberg leading agency, the world balance can be broken by a number of dangerous events. It is expected that they will occur before 2028, that is, in the next decade. We offer you to learn about the new world by the Bloomberg version.

Sunset of the Oil Era

Agency's experts consider the completion of the black gold era is one of the important events. Thanks to the breakthrough in the development of batteries, the release of cheap electric vehicles will become massive, emphasizes Bloomberg. The cost of oil will remain at $50 per barrel. In 2021, the world's largest economies, from Japan to the US, will face problems due to sharp price fluctuations in the automotive market, and the cost of black gold will drop to $20 per barrel. In such situation, energy importers will benefit, and exporters will fail.

Trump will run for a second term

Another key point of the Bloomberg analysts' scenario is that Trump will get a second term. According to this scenario, this year there will be an economic boom in the United States, and in 2020 despite low poll numbers, Trump will scrape through to re-election. A year later, the head of the White House will abolish the Obamacare system, but will not offer an alternative, Bloomberg believes. The US healthcare system will be in for chaos, and the bubble will grow in the stock market. In 2021, the US economy will find itself in a deep recession.

Fake news will destroy Facebook

The third threat to the global economy will be the widespread use of unreliable news by various social networks, such as Facebook. Big Tech firms will not be able to stop the spread of misinformation. In 2019, Facebook will start hiring thousands of contractors to de-rank suspicious content, but it's unlikely they will ever be able to spot the spoofers. Governments will be forced to follow Russia's example and embrace “bot farms” as a new weapon in counterintelligence. By 2025, no one will be able to understand what's true and what's false on the Internet, the agency believes.

Bitcoin will replace the banks

The active development of the cryptosphere will not go unnoticed for the world economy, Bloomberg is confident. According to this scenario, bitcoin will jump to $40,000 and gold will surge too as deep fears set in about the safety of the financial system. Three years later Venezuela, Greece and a few African countries will adopt bitcoin, which will hit $100,000. In 2023, many large banks will collapse, and the place of the world financial system will be taken by the "hodgepodge" of cryptocurrencies and payment systems. Bitcoin will hit $1 million, says the agency.

China will begin a trade war

Another future threat, repeatedly voiced by many experts, will be the confrontation between the PRC and other states in global trade. In 2021, China will pour billions more into subsidizing full conversion to electric vehicles, and Trump will increase tax breaks for oil companies and refuse to rejoin Paris Agreement. In 2024, China will start freezing out and imposing trade sanctions on countries that are lagging behind on CO2 targets. China will impose sanctions on the U.S., Australia, and Russia. The world will see its first climate-driven trade war, Bloomberg believes.

Generational warfare will destroy Europe

Another problem may be the conflict of generations in the euro area, the agency thinks. French pensioners will protest President Emmanuel Macron's attempt to reform a generous retirement system, and Italian elections will show a sharp split between generations. In two years, a decline in the working-age population in Europe is expected, and Portugal, Italy, Spain, and Greece will tip into financial crisis, Bloomberg writes. Low fertility and early retirement will lead to the fact that it takes two workers to support one retiree.

North Korea may launch an attack

The most anticipated pessimistic option for the future may be the actions of the North Korean government, which has repeatedly threatened the world as a whole and the United States in particular to unleash an armed conflict. This scenario means North Korea can launch a rocket in the direction of the U.S. In 2019, North Korean state TV will announce that leader Kim Jong Un has unexpectedly died from a heart attack. A new regime will agree to de-nuclearize, the agency believes. In 2020-2021, Japan will begin developing nuclear weapons and sign a military agreement with China.

The power in the UK will be seized by socialists

Bloomberg's experts do not exclude such scenario in which the power in England will pass to the socialists. Brexit talks will spiral out of control and a snap election will bring Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to power. By 2019 the U.K. will leave the European Union. However, the cost of departure turns out to be higher - 80 billion euros instead of 50 billion euros. By 2022 Corbyn will ramps up taxes to push through his socialist agenda. In this period, inflation will start to spiral out of control and debt will shoot past 100 percent of GDP. There will be rising concern that the country will default.