US President Donald Trump has turned up the heat not only on the global economy but also on America’s own financial stability. According to Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates and one of the world’s most prominent investors, the United States is now teetering on the brink of a recession, driven by Trump’s aggressive tariff campaign and rising global instability.
“Right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” Dalio stressed. He warned that the continuation of the trade war would have profoundly negative consequences for the US economy.
The billionaire hedge fund manager criticized the sweeping tariff regime that now targets dozens of countries. He noted that the White House's strategy became increasingly erratic. Just last week, the administration abruptly suspended tariffs for 90 days for several countries, with the notable exception of China.
Dalio described these fluctuations as “destructive” and akin to throwing stones into a complex production system. He emphasized that such uncertainty was undermining investment decisions, especially those with long-term implications.
Beyond tariffs, Dalio pointed to broader market anxieties over the convergence of systemic risks threatening the global economy. These include the growing US national debt, an expanding fiscal deficit, and rising geopolitical tensions. In his view, these trends could culminate in a major economic shock. “If they don’t, we’re going to have a supply-demand problem for debt at the same time as we have these other problems, and the results of that will be worse than a normal recession,” he warned.
Dalio also voiced concern over the possibility of another financial crisis, one that could surpass the upheavals of 1971 or 2008 in scale and severity.
