Bitcoin logged its largest one‑day loss in two years, yet on‑chain indicators do not signal a cyclical bottom, CryptoQuant analysis shows. The current correction differs materially from the terminal phases of the 2018 and 2022 bear cycles.
On February 5, holders of Bitcoin recorded $5.4 billion in one‑day losses, the largest such outflow since March 2023. Historically, the cyclical troughs formed only after the price fell 24–30% below the asset's realized value. Bitcoin is currently trading about 25% above that threshold.
The MVRV and NUPL indicators have not reached the extreme undervaluation zones that in past cycles preceded a durable reversal. More than 55% of the Bitcoin supply remains in profit, whereas at prior cycle lows, that share fell below 50%.
The CryptoQuant’s phase indicator registers a "Bear" phase but not the "Extreme Bear" phase that has historically preceded recoveries. Analysts note that bottoms in past cycles took between four and six months to form after prices hit their lows.
