FX.co ★ Without deception: Analyst forecast accuracy

Experts took financial data providers such as Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and RosBusinessConsulting as a basis. The forecast accuracy was calculated as follows: firstly, a virtual portfolio was created, then, at the time of recommendation release to purchase the shares of a certain company, these shares were "acquired" by the thousand of currency units in which they are traded. After about two months, the stock was "sold" and excluded from the portfolio. The forecast of the analyst, who recommended to buy shares without rise of prices during this period, was considered to be successful.

The first place in the rating of the most accurate analytical forecasts was given to the Morgan Stanley bank from the United States of America. Its analysts have the highest quality of predictions. The average accuracy indicator of the prices on Russian stocks is almost 60%. The bank's advice generated a profit of 0.6% in 2012, 1.38% in 2013, and 1.46% in 2014.

The second place was occupied by analysts from J.P.Morgan. The average forecast of this bank over the past three years was fixed at 58.76%. However, despite the quality of recommendations, the profitability decreased to -0.01% and -0.95 with negative values in 2013-2014,respectively.

The third place in this list belongs to the domestic company IFC Metropol, which is owned by the State Duma deputy Mikhail Slipenchuk. The average percentage of the forecast accuracy over the past three years is 56.58%. In 2012, the recommendations made by bank's analysts suffered a loss of 1.26% with a negative value.

The fourth position was taken by the Goldman Sachs bank. This New York bank has demonstrated accuracy, the value of which is above 50%. It is also noteworthy that the recommendations of the bank haven't been bringing losses for the third year in a row. Last year, every third advice of Goldman Sachs analysts was true. This result brought a profit of 5.34%, and it was the best indicator among banks in 2014.

Renaisance Capital, an investment bank owned by the billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, was also able to enter the top five companies with the most accurate analysts. The average advice index of the Renaissance Capital over the past three years was 55.67%. It is noteworthy that this Russian bank is one of three banks whose recommendations haven't brought losses. The recommendations profitability for 2012 was 3.65%, 2013 – 0, 37%, 2014 – 0.47.