FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

As the market considered the relative calm of the conditional U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement and worries about U.S. inflation, gold and silver prices saw comparatively flat trading on Wednesday. For over eight weeks, the conditional ceasefire agreement with Iran has remained largely intact. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is currently gradually increasing as a result. As a result, the geopolitical price premium that had been supporting demand for safe havens has eased. Additionally, because central banks continue to acquire a lot of gold, the price has remained stable. Specifically, the Chinese central bank has been purchasing gold for almost 17 months in a row, and the emerging world as a whole is also diversifying. Strong industrial demand and ongoing worldwide supply shortages have also affected silver prices. The need for safe havens has somewhat decreased as a result of the ceasefire, but industrial demand from the energy transition, electric vehicles, electronics, and artificial intelligence sectors continues to boost the metals. Additionally, despite the fact that some price premiums on silver's industrial and inflation protection components may have decreased due to lower energy prices, the metals are still trading against the backdrop of global supply shortfalls. With strong red engulfing candles breaking below the bottom of the blue declining channel, the 50 MA, which is close to $4,450, and a psychological level at $4,500, gold is currently trading at $4,393.12 on the 4-hour period. A bearish trend with sharp lower lows has been in progress since the $4,600 peak. The present goal will be between $4,367 and $4,341 in the Fib expansion zone. With no indication of an oversold situation, the RSI recently broke below 45. Once a fair value gap of $4,500 to $4,538, it is still in the red due to significant selling pressure. As we trade in a wide-down trading range and now decline in the extended down channel from May, the structure is obviously in a bearish mode, below $4,450.

It appears like gold may have hit its lowest point for the bearish downturn. It tested a support zone supported by the 200-day moving average on Thursday, extending its drop to a new low of $4,366. Following a slight undercut of the average, which is close to $4,401, buyers regained control, resulting in an intraday surge and a successful day's closing. A lower daily high of $4,516 is expected to complete a potentially bullish hammer candlestick pattern. Gold may have reached a bottom following two successful tests of support close to the average, which might eventually result in a challenge to the current record high of $5,597. A slide below today's low, however, would alter that since it would indicate a potential prolongation of the decline and a collapse of support close to the long-term trend signal. The lower swing high at $4,589 is important near-term resistance. The short-term slump will undergo a positive reversal if there is a clear gain over that level. The 20-day moving average, which is currently at $4,589 and declining, would also be regained. However, the 50-day moving average indicates the next, more important price level. As resistance to the previous two advancements, it was successfully tested. Today, it formed a crucial confluence resistance zone by converging with the downtrend line. Consequently, above that average, which is currently close to $4,631, a bullish trend reversal signal will be triggered. Gold may cause an upside breakout above the 50-day average prior to June 11, when the apex of a symmetrical triangle is seen. Gold aims for a lower swing high at $4,774 and the 100-day moving average, which is currently close to $4,804, after successfully regaining the 50-day average. A bullish reversal and a possible continuation of the advance into higher resistance levels not yet touched in the present corrective phase will result from a sustained advance above the lower swing high.