#USDX Daily Timeframe: The United States Dollar Index (#USDX) on the daily chart has shown quite interesting structural changes in recent weeks. After registering very aggressive gains reaching the 101.78 area, the price movement began to lose momentum and entered a consolidation phase around the 99.61 area. This condition indicates that the market is in the process of determining its next direction, whether to continue the developing downtrend or instead build upward momentum. In this analysis, the 100-day moving average (MA), shown with a blue line, and the 200-day moving average (MA), shown with a red line, are the main indicators for identifying trend direction. Meanwhile, horizontal support and resistance lines are used to identify key areas that could potentially become reversal points or continuation points. Judging from the structure of price movements over the past year, the dollar index has experienced several quite distinct phases. From September to November 2025, the price moved upwards and managed to stay above the 100-day moving average (MA). However, from late 2025 to early 2026, selling pressure began to dominate, causing the price to decline sharply, reaching the 95.51 area. After forming a low, the market began to show signs of recovery. The price then gradually rose until it finally broke through the 100-day moving average (MA) and approached the 200-day moving average (MA). Successfully breaking through these two moving averages was an early signal that bullish momentum was beginning to form. The upward momentum strengthened when the price broke through the resistance areas of 99.36 and 100.42. This breakout triggered further gains, pushing the dollar index to the 101.78 area. However, as is often the case in technical analysis, excessively rapid gains are usually followed by a correction.
Currently, the price has fallen again and is below the 100-day moving average (MA). Meanwhile, the price remains slightly above the 200-day moving average (MA). This situation indicates uncertainty in the market. According to moving average theory, when the price is between the 100- and 200-day moving averages, the market is typically entering a transitional phase. The 100-day moving average, which previously served as dynamic support, has now transformed into medium-term resistance. The price has attempted to break through this line several times, but has been rejected each time. This indicates that market participants remain cautious about resuming accumulation. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average remains a relatively strong dynamic support level. As long as the price remains above the 200-day moving average, the potential for a recovery remains open. However, if selling pressure continues to increase and the price closes below the 200-day moving average, the potential for a decline will increase. In terms of horizontal support, there are several important areas to pay attention to. The closest support level is at 99.36. This area is crucial because it is very close to the 200-day moving average (MA). If this support level is broken, the next downside target will be the 98.71 area. The 98.71 level is quite strong support because it previously served as a rebound point in April and May 2026. If selling pressure intensifies, the price could potentially continue to weaken towards the 97.58 area. This level serves as medium-term support that held back a decline in late 2025. If the bearish scenario persists, the 96.45 area will be the next target. A decline towards this level would confirm a trend change from bullish to bearish in the medium term. In fact, it is not impossible for the price to retest the low at 95.51. On the other hand, there are several important resistance levels that could become targets if the price strengthens again. The first resistance level is at 99.75. This area is the initial barrier that must be broken to re-establish bullish momentum. If the price manages to move above 99.75, the next resistance level is located at 100.42. This level is crucial because it previously served as a breakout area that drove the price upwards towards the peak of 101.78. The next resistance level is at 101.05. This area has served as a consolidation point several times before the price reached its highest peak. If the price manages to break through this level, the next target is the 101.78 area. Technically, the current pattern tends to resemble a distribution phase. This is evident in the price's failure to maintain its position above 100.42. After setting a new peak, the price instead formed a series of sideways movements, followed by a sharp decline. Furthermore, the distance between the 100-day moving average (MA) and the 200-day moving average (MA) is starting to narrow. This condition often signals an early trend change. If the 100-day moving average (MA) begins to move downward and eventually crosses the 200-day moving average (MA), a stronger bearish signal will form. Trading volume is not shown in this chart, but candlestick patterns indicate that buying pressure is weakening. The relatively small candlestick bodies over the past few days indicate a balance between buyers and sellers. However, the price's failure to break through the 100-day moving average (MA) indicates that sellers remain in control. In the short term, price movement is likely to remain consolidated between 99.36 and 99.75. Movement within this range will determine the direction of the next trend. A breakout above 99.75 would open the door to an increase towards 100.42. Conversely, a break below 99.36 would increase the risk of a decline towards 98.71.
