FX.co ★ EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair have become more complex, necessitating careful adjustments to overall trend forecasts. While the macroeconomic uptrend that began in January maintains its technical integrity over a longer timeframe, the internal price action has evolved into an extended A-B-C corrective pattern, potentially developing into a more complex structure. Based on the number of waves in this development, the completion of wave D indicates that the pair has entered the early stages of wave E, meaning that further declines could threaten and break the key low formed by wave C at 1.1325. Assessing whether the current news context provides sufficient momentum to push the exchange rate to its multi-month lows reveals an interesting divergence: even in the absence of new immediate fundamental catalysts, the recent strength of the US dollar has persisted, prompting market participants to rely more heavily on strict risk management and stop-loss strategies rather than blindly chasing trend momentum. A comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic situation over the past year highlights the ambiguity surrounding the strength of the US dollar relative to other major currencies. The divergent policies of central banks have not provided a clear and straightforward explanation for the dollar's significant appreciation. While the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates and hinted at further monetary tightening, the European Central Bank also raised rates twice and is preparing to tighten monetary policy, while the Bank of England maintains a similar hawkish stance. Despite the largely similar monetary policy positions of the major economies, the dollar has experienced repeated strong gains, forcing the euro/dollar exchange rate to hover near the lower end of its annual consolidation channel, which lies within the 1.13-1.19 range. This movement aligns with historical patterns in previous quarters, where macroeconomic conditions led to similar price fluctuations, suggesting that the euro is currently hovering near the sensitive lower end of its multi-month range. From an analytical perspective, maintaining trading discipline requires strict adherence to fundamental methodological principles: wave structures must remain clear and well-defined, as overly complex patterns often foreshadow hidden structural shifts and higher trading risks. Because absolute certainty is impossible in dynamic forex markets, selling directly against the trend (even if driven by complex news) can be extremely risky; therefore, when confidence levels are low, it is best to remain neutral or carefully manage risk exposure. Ultimately, while another possibility is the continuation of the five-wave correction cycle, targeting below 1.1325, the strong horizontal support and conflicting fundamental signals suggest that we need to adopt a highly cautious and analytical approach, combining wave analysis with strict risk management.